Lorna R,Nayagam; Dr.Ram Mohan,H S(Cochin University of Science & Technology, February , 2012)
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Abstract:
The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller
spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of
land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better
understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past
century.
The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible
with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional
difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies
than considering India as a single unit.
The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use
of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore
circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is
surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the
remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering
idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated
crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in
the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of
western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is
possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over
the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly
identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the
physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and
dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical
models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of
monsoon have to be continually updated.
Description:
Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Cochin University of Science
and Technology